When the 'Nobel' committee decided to award US President Barack Obama the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009, I was one among the many people who criticized their collective wisdom. Here was a man who was commander-in-chief of the most powerful army in the world, involved in two of the most deadliest conflicts in the 21st century and who has proved nothing with less than one year into his presidency. What I didn't know then was the almost psychic power of the committee to look into the then distant future.
In his two terms of presidency, the commander-in-chief has many peace initiatives as badges up his sleeves.
Troop Draw down was one of his poll promises and he made good of it, due to poll compulsions or not, and it has shown good results in security situation in Iraq and Afghanistan from the American perspective with less war casualties.
Iran was another bone of contention. At one point it looked like invasion was imminent and stories of 'leaked' battle plans doing the rounds. Then there was Stuxnet, a complex worm which disrupted fast spinning centrifuges, sending the Nuclear program of Iran back by several years. The president stood his ground against the hawks in the war department and chose financial sanctions instead of firing Tomahawks. Now it emerges a deal would likely be clinched limiting the Iran Nuclear program.
With Syria on the boil, it emerged Syrian President al-Assad used banned chemical weapons against his own population, a la Saddam Hussein. The policeman of the world was furious and calls for punishing the Syrian state was in the air. However, sense prevailed, largely thanks to the efforts of Russian Tsar President, Vladimir Putin.
When the Ukraine protest movement gained a critical mass resulting in its President Yanukovych fleeing to Russia and the annexation of Crimea by Putin, Obama did a balancing act of reassuring his allies and repudiate Russia through economic sanctions.
Finally the talk of lifting of the United States embargo against Cuba, a communist state right next door confirms USA has been making peace with most of the world.
Not just buying peace with enemies, the US seems to be cold shouldering its allies too.
Israel, the Jewish state on whom USA's middle east policy is based on and whose security it views as most important next only to its own has been cold shouldered off late. Be it the controversy surrounding Israel's expanding settlement policy or Iran Nuclear standoff, the Israelis weren't taken along.
Saudi Arabia, the next important US ally in the middle east had got a similar deal. Not being taken along in the Iran Nuclear deal, they have turned to Pakistan, a nuclear power. There are talks of how the Pakistanis have even pledged to deliver the Saudis, nuclear weapons, all for a price. Saudis also feel by not providing the Syrian opposition forces with more powerful weapons the Americans have let gone a golden chance to cripple the Saudi's regional rival duo - Iran and Syria. The Iran Nuclear Deal only cements the suspicion of the Saudis.
Japan is scrambling for defense ties with India and Australia to offset a possible US dormant position as China is asserting itself with new air bases and infrastructure in the South China Sea. United Kingdom the most trusted and closest ally, next only to Israel, recently went ahead and joined the China-led World Bank slayer, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Most European allies have joined AIIB. Eastern European allies are kept in the dark as well. Poland and Czech Republic were promised a missile cover which never came to fruition. Georgia and Ukraine still await their NATO membership.
All this seems to suggest that USA would enter a period of consolidation - economical and political. The shale reserves, favorable demographic situation, though shaken not flattened transparent markets, innovative and enterprising, highly skilled immigrant welcoming community, all allows for this consolidation to happen. This may not result in a multipolar world as envisioned by Putin but would result in a 'neutral' almost pre-WW2 United States.
Unless there is a Republican victory, which could change everything.
Saudi Arabia, the next important US ally in the middle east had got a similar deal. Not being taken along in the Iran Nuclear deal, they have turned to Pakistan, a nuclear power. There are talks of how the Pakistanis have even pledged to deliver the Saudis, nuclear weapons, all for a price. Saudis also feel by not providing the Syrian opposition forces with more powerful weapons the Americans have let gone a golden chance to cripple the Saudi's regional rival duo - Iran and Syria. The Iran Nuclear Deal only cements the suspicion of the Saudis.
Japan is scrambling for defense ties with India and Australia to offset a possible US dormant position as China is asserting itself with new air bases and infrastructure in the South China Sea. United Kingdom the most trusted and closest ally, next only to Israel, recently went ahead and joined the China-led World Bank slayer, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Most European allies have joined AIIB. Eastern European allies are kept in the dark as well. Poland and Czech Republic were promised a missile cover which never came to fruition. Georgia and Ukraine still await their NATO membership.
All this seems to suggest that USA would enter a period of consolidation - economical and political. The shale reserves, favorable demographic situation, though shaken not flattened transparent markets, innovative and enterprising, highly skilled immigrant welcoming community, all allows for this consolidation to happen. This may not result in a multipolar world as envisioned by Putin but would result in a 'neutral' almost pre-WW2 United States.
Unless there is a Republican victory, which could change everything.
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